Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 12.965024 14.817501 16.826240 19.164363 21.809244 24.706493 28.118950
2024-10-20 10.044140 12.481932 15.337408 18.921797 23.293548 28.444758 34.967339
2024-10-27 8.136940 10.675656 13.801174 17.919287 23.188910 29.691515 38.309138
2024-11-03 7.275952 10.006084 13.515172 18.335640 24.762977 33.012786 44.377473
2024-11-10 6.619098 9.481839 13.300948 18.739265 26.250778 36.222123 50.418712
2024-11-17 5.882743 8.751513 12.712593 18.542860 26.860636 38.247204 54.953201
2024-11-24 5.221609 8.045710 12.071534 18.181263 27.161675 39.807728 58.879480
2024-12-01 4.769023 7.590990 11.733978 18.201134 27.970641 42.088101 63.920449
2024-12-08 4.451584 7.303503 11.606700 18.501759 29.184688 44.994559 70.015936
2024-12-15 4.132761 6.979747 11.389347 18.633022 30.129331 47.531802 75.682528
2024-12-22 3.786067 6.576712 11.010057 18.470251 30.588169 49.334897 80.303667
2024-12-29 3.547862 6.328372 10.852140 18.638339 31.563323 51.968520 86.342755
2025-01-05 3.401605 6.228519 10.937248 19.224074 33.276642 55.907840 94.768696
2025-01-12 3.127856 5.883239 10.584706 19.048942 33.717851 57.824590 100.031411
2025-01-19 2.740822 5.299330 9.773879 18.018837 32.627925 57.135578 100.899138
2025-01-26 2.624330 5.197949 9.796936 18.444464 34.065026 60.741691 109.199493
2025-02-02 2.513675 5.096766 9.810115 18.848003 35.480428 64.378365 117.741485
2025-02-09 2.328064 4.835138 9.508640 18.651278 35.798815 66.118209 123.049486
2025-02-16 2.137634 4.546799 9.134025 18.287425 35.779984 67.248179 127.316335
2025-02-23 2.011667 4.376290 8.969580 18.307487 36.469463 69.674917 134.042099
2025-03-02 1.928516 4.286034 8.953090 18.609755 37.706484 73.157708 142.881000
2025-03-09 1.832194 4.159663 8.854937 18.741755 38.618677 76.080023 150.819902
2025-03-16 1.712133 3.971973 8.618679 18.578077 38.936744 77.894319 156.747417